Sunday, October 24, 2010

Ohio State's misfortune

Ohio State has won at least a share of the Big Ten title and gone to a BCS bowl game every year for the past five years, with this streak including the 2006 and 2007 National Championship games. They have fielded a good team year after year, but have often been over-rewarded at seasons’ end going to bowl games much more prestigious than their talent level merited. They can thank Big Ten format and its lack of a conference championship game for their good fortune. However, this year the very same format may lead to end of these streaks.

There is no doubt that Ohio State University has been the largest beneficiary from the Big Ten’s lack of a conference championship game.  It helped them the most during the two seasons when they went to the national championship game. Had there been a Big Ten championship game those years, in 2006, Ohio State would have had to play a #3 Michigan team whose only loss was a 42-39 battle against the Buckeyes. The rematch would have been a very losable game as some regarded Michigan as the best team in the country.  If Michigan won that game then they would have played for the national championship against Florida and we could have been saved from watching the 41-14 thumping Ohio State received.

In 2007, they would have played #15 Illinois who had beaten Ohio State earlier in the season 28-21. They finished their season ranked third in the BCS standings, but were able to move up to first by sitting idle and watching West Virginia lose to Pitt and Missouri lose in the Big 12 Championship Game. They ended up going to the national championship game and got handled by a much better LSU team.

In the Big Ten’s final year without a conference championship game, the current format may be Ohio State’s worst enemy and Michigan State’s best friend. With last Saturday’s loss to Wisconsin, Ohio State has clearly put themselves behind undefeated Michigan State in the standings. The Buckeyes don’t have the chance to prove they are a better team because they don’t play Michigan State this year. Each team does not play two conference opponents and this year the Spartans are one of the two teams Ohio State does not play. Because of this, they will need some help to retain their title and must hope someone beats Michigan State. Their best chance is coming next week as the Spartans go to Iowa City to play the Hawkeyes, but if the Spartans get past Iowa, none of their remaining opponents pose much of a threat. If Michigan State goes undefeated, they would win the Big Ten title without having to face what is arguably the best team in the conference.

If there was a conference championship game, they could have their chance to play each other and show everyone who is the true Big Ten champion. Right now Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes must be cursing the very same format that has helped them time after time.

Random thoughts from Saturday’s games:
  • Boise State must love watching all these #1 teams falling, with Oklahoma losing to Missouri last night.  Chances are they won’t move up in the rankings though with Auburn leapfrogging over them.
  • Cam Newton leads Auburn to victory once again, beating LSU 24-17 and running for 217 yards in the process.  In my mind, he has clearly made himself the Heisman favorite.
  • Missouri and Nebraska both won yesterday setting up a match-up to decide the Big 12 North when they play each other next week in Lincoln. It’ll be interesting to see how the Tiger perform on the road after their huge win against Oklahoma.
  • Biggest upset of the weekend was Iowa State over Texas.  Texas was coming off of their big win against Nebraska and Iowa State had just been annihilated by Oklahoma 52-0.Texas is clearly not the preseason top-10 team that every expected to see with second loss to an unranked opponent.
  • Georgia has made themselves relevant again after winning their last three games with ease. They will face their toughest test of this comeback next week in Jacksonville when they play Florida.  
  • The ACC Coastal Division looks to be coming down to Virginia Tech and Miami after Georgia Tech lost to Clemson and Miami beat North Carolina.  Both Georgia Tech and UNC would need a lot of help to win the conference now.
  • Wisconsin had another big win on Saturday beating Iowa 31-30 and Iowa mismanaged the clock and let it expire before getting a chance to score.  Having already played Michigan State and Ohio State, they must now wait and hope someone, most likely Iowa, can beat them.

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