Bowl Prediction: Part 4

Georgia Tech gave away the game last night after turning over the ball four times including two muffed punts.  Air Force took advantage and sent the Yellow Jackets to its sixth straight bowl loss. The loss also sent my bowl record to 4-5. There are two really good games tonight to watch and let's hope I can sweep the to go over .500.

Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. North Carolina State Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack will test the Mountaineers' top-5 defense in what should be a close game.  The Wolf Pack are led by quarterback Russell Wilson who will look to wide receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams to help lead the Wolf Pack to victory.  I don't see that happening though. West Virginia's defense should be able to hold them off enough to let running back Noel Devine end his college career with a win.  What I felt was the best team in the Big East should be able to pull off a 24-21 win. 

Insight Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
I really liked Iowa to win this one despite losing their last three games and that I felt Missouri is a better team. They always seem to play their best for bowl games as they showed last year against Georgia Tech.  I changed my opinion after running back Adam Robinson was suspended for possession of marijuana. Iowa will also be playing without suspended receiver Derrell Johnson- Koulianos. I see Missouri pulling out a win as Blaine Gabbert leads his team to a 27-20 victory.

Bowl Predictions: Part 3

After correctly predicting the first three games last week, I looked to be heading on the right track, until Tulsa embarrassed Hawaii on its own field.  Then two days later, Toledo lost a heart breaker to Florida International. I finished 3-2 last week to bring my overall bowl record to 4-4. Hopefully, I can pull it back up to a winning record. I’m only doing the Independence Bowl in this edition and look for more predictions tomorrow.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force Falcons vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
I hope you guys like watching the triple-option offense because that is all you will be seeing this whole game.  It should be a quick one as these are the top two teams in rushing and in the bottom four in passing.  It might be a major conference bias, but I’m going with Georgia Tech in this one. Coach Paul Johnson beat Air Force five straight times when he was at Navy. Also Tech’s biggest weakness has been run defense, but I feel they can do a good job stopping Air Force because all they have to do is practice on their offense. I believe back-up quarterback Tevin Washington can be good enough to help lead Tech to a 31-28 victory.

Bowl Predictions: Part 2

My bowl predictions did not start so well as I went 1-2 in the first three games.  BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy and demolished their opponents. Northern Illinois showed that they didn’t need ex-head coach Jerry Kill, and Corey Robinson played masterfully for Troy throwing for four touchdown and had no interceptions.  Hopefully, I do better in the next few games.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St. Petersburg
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Louisville Cardinals
This here is a classic case of offense vs. defense.  Southern Miss has an explosive offense lead by quarterback Austin Davis. He can spread the field with the help of receivers Kelvin Bolden and Johdrick Morris or hand it off to running backs Hardy and Johnson. Louisville touts one of the nation’s top defenses thanks to first-year head coach Charlie Strong. They’ll have their hand’s full with the Southern Miss defense but should be able handle it.  I think Louisville will pull this one out thanks to Southern Miss’ weak defense.  QB Adam Froman, coming back from an injury, will play in the game, but Justin Burke will start.  Strong will probably switch back and forth between the two, but running back Bilal Powell will make all the difference as he leads the Cardinals to a 31-23 victory.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
Utah Utes vs. Boise State Broncos
This is probably the game I am most excited for this week. It features two teams that were once ranked in the top five of the country and is the first bowl to have ranked teams. It will be interesting to see if Boise State comes out flat due to the disappointment of not playing in a BCS bowl game or if they will look to let out their frustration.  I think Chris Peterson will have his team ready and Kellen Moore will lead his team to one last win.  It will be interesting to see how Kyle Brotzman does after missing the two huge field goals in the Nevada game and one against Utah State. Utah should still be able to keep it relatively close (for a Boise State game), but I see Boise State winning 38-24.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy Midshipman vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Is it possible to come up with an even wordier bowl game title? I really like the Aztec in this game. They have the home field advantage in addition to more time to prepare for this game because Navy just played Army on December 11th. Navy has a great running game with their triple-option offense, but the Aztec have shown they can stop a triple-option offense when they played Air Force.  Aztec running back Ronnie Hillman has been dealing with injuries, but the extra rest will serve him well. A healthy Hillman will really help quarterback Ryan Lindley because the defense will have to divert some attention to the run, which should open up passing lanes. They win this one 31-21.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii Warriors vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
This will be quite an entertaining game to watch, especially if you like offense. Hawaii and Tulsa rank in the top ten in offense and both average nearly 40 points per game. Tulsa quarterback G.J. Kinne is their most dangerous weapon because he can beat defense through the air or run on them.  He is the team’s leading rusher. Hawaii is lead by their own quarterback Bryant Moniz, who leads college football with the most passing yards. He should have a fun day going against Tulsa’s passing defense, which rank 119th in college football. I see the Warriors winning this one 42-31.

Little Caesars Bowl
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
So this is the second match-up between a MAC and Sun Belt team. In the first one I went with the MAC team, picking Ohio over Troy, and it didn’t work out so well. I’m going to go with the MAC team again in hopes that the conference redeems itself.  Rockets quarterback Austin Dantin, who had separated his shoulder, is supposed to be back for this game. He will look to get the ball to wide receiver Eric Page, who should provide the team with a nice boost in special teams as well. Running back Adonis Thomas will balance the offense by finding holes in the line to help his team to a 30-24 victory.

Bowl Predictions: Part 1

It’s finally here. The time of year that you’ve waited for all season. It’s bowl season.  I’ll be examining every bowl game over the next few weeks, but this edition will take a look at this weekend’s bowls.  Look for the next edition to be up by Monday and will cover all the bowls up to the Little Caesar’s Bowl. But we’ve got three great games this weekend and while they may not be the best bowl games, they are the first ones. Let get right into it with my predictions.

New Mexico Bowl
Bringham Young Cougers vs. UTEP Miners
I’m excited for this game for mainly one reason and it’s because it is the first bowl game of the season.  The two teams enter this game heading in different directions. BYU won five of its last seven games to become bowl eligible, while the Miners lost five of its last six. UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe’s ankle is a major concern, but it is probable that he plays. He won’t be at 100%, but will be motivated nonetheless, as it is most likely be the last game of his career. BYU is led by running back JJ Di Luigi and should be in for a good game against UTEP’s weak run defense. One thing I feel will work in UTEP’s favor is that they should be more excited to be here since it will be their players’ first bowl appearance. However, I still see BYU winning this comfortably in a 31-17 game.

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
This should be a relatively close game. Talent-wise I like the Huskies with Chad Spann, one of the nation’s leading rushers, and quarterback Chandler Harnish, but I think Fresno State should pull out a win.  Northern Illinois is going to have to play this game without head coach Jerry Kill, who left for Minnesota. Pat Hill should have Robbie Rouse, Fresno’s own talented RB, ready and should have a slight home-field advantage as they play on Boise State’s blue turf. As long as Fresno can hold onto the ball and not turn it over, they should pull this one out 28-24.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans
I am excited for this game because of Troy WR Jerrell Jernigan. I was able to watch him against Oklahoma State earlier this season and he played a terrific game with a touchdown on offense and 100-yard touchdown on a kickoff return.  While he may be fun to watch, I feel his quarterback Corey Robinson may make too many mistakes and will let Ohio take this one.  I feel Bobcat running back Vince Davis and backup quarterback Phil Bates should be able to run over the Trojan defense. I see Ohio winning this 28-27.

Goin' Streaking

"We're going streaking!"

No one actually followed Will Ferrell when he exclaimed, “We’re going streaking!” in Old School. Maybe he should have screamed it to the NBA instead of a frat party. He could have found some followers there.  The three division leaders in the East, the Celtics, Bulls, and Heat, are all on win streaks of 7 games or more and hope to keep them going. Frank the Tank really wishes he had partied with these teams right now.  It’ll be interesting to see how long these teams can go before they lose.  Let’s check out each streak and see how they’ve done it and if it's likely they'll continue.

Boston
Boston has won 12 games in row after beating the Hawks 102-90.  Overall, it have been an impressive streak with two wins over Atlanta in addition to wins over Chicago, Denver and New York. Their next few tough games are at Orlando on Christmas Day, San Antonio on January 5th, and then Chicago on January 8th.  Overall it could be a manageable schedule up until the Spurs game.

Interesting Stat: They have had seven different leading scorers over their twelve game streak. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Shaquille O’Neal, Nate Robinson, and Glen Davis have all been the leading scorer. This balance among the team will really help in the next few games with Rondo out.

Concern: Rajon Rondo will miss the next couple of weeks due to an ankle injury.  He will be missed as he leads the league in assists and is able to bring this team together.  Robinson has shown he can be productive in limited minutes and did well against Atlanta, but we will have to wait and see how he does in the starting role.  (And does anybody else love his early-90s, Fresh Prince haircut?)

Miami
Miami has now won 10 in a row and will look to make it eleven in New York on Friday night. Everyone had been waiting for this team to show their potential, and now we see it.  Dwayne Wade and LeBron James have fully adjusted and are playing extremely well together.  What has been most impressive about this team has to be their defense.  They have the best defense in the league, giving up barely over 91 points a game.  Of the three teams streaking right now, they have the hardest upcoming schedule as they have to play the Knicks twice, the Mavs, and the Lakers all before New Year’s.

Interesting Stat: The Heat have not allowed over 100 points in a single game during this streak and is allowing a mere 85.5 points per game.  It seems Spoelstra’s “do something good on defense, you can do what you want on offense” reward system is working. They also have nine of the ten games by double digits easily handling their opponents.

Concern: The schedule. They have a lot of good teams coming up and I doubt they will make it to New Year’s still on this streak. They are bound to have a close game sooner or later, which will be fun to watch. The Heat are 0-3 in games decided by 5 points or less. We still do not know how they will play in a close game with their new confidence.

Chicago
Chicago has won seven in row so far and it hasn’t been easy.  They won an overtime game against Houston and then had to go through the Lakers and Thunder. Their upcoming schedule won’t be as hard.  They play only one team above .500, the Knicks, in their next eleven games.  The combined winning percentage of those opponents is .341. If it wasn’t for Joakim Noah’s injury, I would have confidently said the Bulls would be riding an 18-game winning streak heading into their January 5th match-up against the Celtics.

Interesting Stat: Derrick Rose has made 19 three-pointers during this seven game streak. He made a total of 16 in each of his previous two seasons.  Rose has fully taken on the leadership role for this team and has drastically improved his game this season.  Before the season he had asked, “Why can’t I be the MVP of the league?”  What seemed quite unrealistic at the time doesn’t sound so crazy anymore.

Concern: Joakim Noah’s thumb injury. He will be out for the next 2-3 months and this a huge loss to the Bulls.  The energy he brought to the team was immense. The loss in rebounds is huge as he was one of the NBA’s top five rebounders and led Chicago to be the second best rebounding team in the league. Boozer and Gibson have to try to take over and at times play like a center. We may see Omer Asik playing more minutes, but there are also rumors that the Bulls may sign someone new.

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party!

Two hated rivals meet in Jacksonville on Saturday when the Georgia Bulldogs take on the Florida Gators. The two teams are virtually playing for their SEC East life, as a loss for either team will put them two games behind South Carolina in the loss column, all but eliminating the loser from the race.  More important than that, the loser would have to worry about winning two of their final games just to make a bowl game. It would be unfathomable for either school not to make a bowl game since Florida has made 19 straight bowl games and Georgia has made 13 straight, two of the four longest streaks in the country.  

Georgia is looking for their fourth consecutive win after suffering 4 continuous losses. They have turned their season around, but a win on Saturday would solidify their comeback. Meanwhile, Florida looks to end their own losing streak.  They have lost three in row and hope to find a signature win to build off of for the rest of the season. A loss on Saturday would give Florida their first four game losing streak since 1988. You know the Bulldogs would love to hand them that loss.

It is one of greatest rivalries in college football and there is nothing but pure hatred between the two schools.  A win in this game can be the silver lining in an awful season.  Fans would gladly say, “We had a bad year, but at least we beat Florida”. Right now the hatred is probably a little stronger for Georgia fans. Even though our series record is 47-39-2, we have lost 17 of the last 20 meetings. With both schools rebuilding right now, Georgia would love to reverse this trend and take back control of the rivalry.

(Sorry, I just realized I started saying “we” instead of Georgia. I tried to remain impartial, but just couldn’t do it. I love UGA too much.)

Georgia dancing after scoring a touchdown in 2007.

I don’t get why we always seem to choke against Florida, but I feel good about our chances this year.  Mark Right has this team fired up and it reminds me of 2007, when we danced on the field and beat Florida 42-30. Washaun Ealey is coming off of a Kentucky game where he had five touchdowns and Caleb King is coming back from his suspension. Aaron Murray has dramatically matured throughout the year and has turned into a quality quarterback. We have a had a positive turnover margin in the past three games with 9 takeaways and and only 1 turnover. That is a phenomenal turnover margin, especially considering we were -16 in the turnover department last year, which was 118th in the country.

All these facts are the reason why we are entering the game as the favorite, but we better be careful.  The Gators have had two weeks to prepare for this game and you know Urban Meyer will have his players ready.  Chris Rainey is will be back from his suspension, and the week off has helped Demps and Sturgis get healthier.  They will certainly be a different team than they have been the past three games.  Also, if our defense does not figure out its third-down woes, Urban Meyer could make it a bad day for Georgia fans.  

Nonetheless, it should be an exciting, well-fought game that goes down to the wire.  It definitely should be more exciting that the last two Georgia-Florida games. I feel like Jacksonville will be filled with Georgia fans celebrating a Bulldog victory on Saturday, but then again, I almost have to say that. We’ll see what happens on Saturday.

GO DAWGS!!!

Ohio State's misfortune

Ohio State has won at least a share of the Big Ten title and gone to a BCS bowl game every year for the past five years, with this streak including the 2006 and 2007 National Championship games. They have fielded a good team year after year, but have often been over-rewarded at seasons’ end going to bowl games much more prestigious than their talent level merited. They can thank Big Ten format and its lack of a conference championship game for their good fortune. However, this year the very same format may lead to end of these streaks.

There is no doubt that Ohio State University has been the largest beneficiary from the Big Ten’s lack of a conference championship game.  It helped them the most during the two seasons when they went to the national championship game. Had there been a Big Ten championship game those years, in 2006, Ohio State would have had to play a #3 Michigan team whose only loss was a 42-39 battle against the Buckeyes. The rematch would have been a very losable game as some regarded Michigan as the best team in the country.  If Michigan won that game then they would have played for the national championship against Florida and we could have been saved from watching the 41-14 thumping Ohio State received.

In 2007, they would have played #15 Illinois who had beaten Ohio State earlier in the season 28-21. They finished their season ranked third in the BCS standings, but were able to move up to first by sitting idle and watching West Virginia lose to Pitt and Missouri lose in the Big 12 Championship Game. They ended up going to the national championship game and got handled by a much better LSU team.

In the Big Ten’s final year without a conference championship game, the current format may be Ohio State’s worst enemy and Michigan State’s best friend. With last Saturday’s loss to Wisconsin, Ohio State has clearly put themselves behind undefeated Michigan State in the standings. The Buckeyes don’t have the chance to prove they are a better team because they don’t play Michigan State this year. Each team does not play two conference opponents and this year the Spartans are one of the two teams Ohio State does not play. Because of this, they will need some help to retain their title and must hope someone beats Michigan State. Their best chance is coming next week as the Spartans go to Iowa City to play the Hawkeyes, but if the Spartans get past Iowa, none of their remaining opponents pose much of a threat. If Michigan State goes undefeated, they would win the Big Ten title without having to face what is arguably the best team in the conference.

If there was a conference championship game, they could have their chance to play each other and show everyone who is the true Big Ten champion. Right now Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes must be cursing the very same format that has helped them time after time.

Random thoughts from Saturday’s games:

• Boise State must love watching all these #1 teams falling, with Oklahoma losing to Missouri last night.  Chances are they won’t move up in the rankings though with Auburn leapfrogging over them.
• Cam Newton leads Auburn to victory once again, beating LSU 24-17 and running for 217 yards in the process.  In my mind, he has clearly made himself the Heisman favorite.
• Missouri and Nebraska both won yesterday setting up a match-up to decide the Big 12 North when they play each other next week in Lincoln. It’ll be interesting to see how the Tiger perform on the road after their huge win against Oklahoma.
• Biggest upset of the weekend was Iowa State over Texas.  Texas was coming off of their big win against Nebraska and Iowa State had just been annihilated by Oklahoma 52-0.Texas is clearly not the preseason top-10 team that every expected to see with second loss to an unranked opponent.
• Georgia has made themselves relevant again after winning their last three games with ease. They will face their toughest test of this comeback next week in Jacksonville when they play Florida.  
• The ACC Coastal Division looks to be coming down to Virginia Tech and Miami after Georgia Tech lost to Clemson and Miami beat North Carolina.  Both Georgia Tech and UNC would need a lot of help to win the conference now.
• Wisconsin had another big win on Saturday beating Iowa 31-30 and Iowa mismanaged the clock and let it expire before getting a chance to score.  Having already played Michigan State and Ohio State, they must now wait and hope someone, most likely Iowa, can beat them.